A Sweet Derby for Sidney's Candy

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Here are five reasons why Sidney's Candy will win the 136th Kentucky Derby.

First, he's the fastest horse in the race. Not only did the son of Candy Ride break a track record as a two-year-old at Del Mar, he has consistently put up the best speed figures of any three-year-old outside of Eskendereya.

Second, the race sets up perfectly for him even from post 20 as there is absolutely zero speed from the four horses that break directly to his inside. Look for jockey Joe Talamo to have Sidney's Candy sitting about two or three lengths off Conveyance, Line of David, and quite possibly Paddy O'Prado in the early portion of the race and then power his way to the lead at the top of the stretch - think Big Brown two years ago.

Third, the chestnut colt has absolutely adored Churchill Downs. A blistering 59 4/5 five-furlong breeze on April 17 was followed by a sensational 1:11 3/5 six- furlong trek over the slop on April 24. In fact, his three, four and five- furlong splits in that second work were quicker than the fastest works of the day at each of those three distances.

The one great equalizer could be the track condition as heavy rains are expected to hit the area Saturday morning and continue throughout the day. The surface will be a slick one come post time but that won't affect Sidney's Candy one bit. After the April 24 workout, Talamo stated the wet track will not be a problem, and based on the horse's pedigree, the off-going could actually help.

Fourth, trainer John Sadler has been on fire of late winning three straight with Sidney's Candy, along with the Arkansas Derby (Line of David) and the Derby Trial (Hurricane Ike). He also saddled Emmy Darling to win at Churchill Downs last Sunday.

Finally, first-time dirt from synthetics has been a key angle in recent months as Lookin At Lucky (Rebel Stakes), Line of David (Arkansas Derby), Conveyance (Southwest Stakes) and American Lion (Illinois Derby) all garnered important three-year-old stakes victories this year. And don't forget, four of the first five finishers in last year's Kentucky Derby (Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy) raced over synthetics the majority of the time prior to the first Saturday in May.

Sidney's Candy will win the 2010 Kentucky Derby by at least two lengths. The key will be finding the other three colts to finish second, third and fourth.

WHICH THREE HORSES WILL FILL OUT THE SUPERFECTA?

In answering such a question, it's important to figure out how the race will be run.

There is enough speed to ensure a decent pace but don't expect the horses to fly early on. The sloppy conditions will keep the fractions relatively slow, say 47 and change for the first half-mile.

Speed usually holds better on an off-track even though Mine That Bird closed like a horse possessed in last year's race. That's not to say Conveyance, Line of David and Paddy O'Prado will hold on for second, third and fourth, but they might not falter as fast as they would under normal circumstances.

A boatload of stalkers falling into two distinct groups will sit anywhere between two and five lengths off the pace. The A-list is highlighted by three colts with solid chances of sticking around through the stretch, while the B- list consists of four that will wilt when challenged by the first set.

Super Saver, American Lion and Lookin At Lucky make up the "A" group and Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Noble's Promise and Mission Impazible fall into the "B" set.

With so many three-year-olds expected to stay close to the lead, the horses near the back of the pack will have a lot to do around the far turn, especially with tons of muddy dirt being kicked in their faces.

Those horses - nine in total - could also be placed into two separate categories as only a few have a chance to hit the board.

The horses that are in over their heads are Homeboykris, Backtalk, Make Music for Me, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten and Dublin.

The colts with a shot are Stately Victor, Awesome Act and Ice Box

Based on the above information, the three superfecta slots behind Sidney's Candy could be filled by only six horses - Super Saver, American Lion and Lookin At Lucky, Stately Victor, Awesome Act and Ice Box.

Let's take a historical perspective of which types of horses usually finish in those slots.

In the last eight runnings of the Derby, only 10 of the 33 (there was a dead- heat for fourth in 2006) superfecta finishers were more than 10 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, and eight of the 10 (80%) were only able to run first, second, third or fourth when the first four furlongs were run in 46 1/5 seconds or faster.

Only three were victorious (Street Sense, Giacomo and Mine That Bird) while the other seven finished either third or fourth. Based on those figures, one can assume that Ice Box will have too much ground to make up to finish in the place spot.

So, which of the other five have the best chance of running second? Let's run down the list.

As is the case with Ice Box, Stately Victor might find himself with too much to do late in the race but the Blue Grass winner must be considered as he's looked fantastic all week. He's definitely coming into his own at the right time and could easily finish second since he's bred to love the wet going.

Super Saver and American Lion have decent chances to pick up second-place money as both colts should be able to work out decent trips. Super Saver has already won a race in the slop while American Lion is bred to handle off-tracks.

Lookin At Lucky is a prime candidate to hit the board, as the morning line favorite has won six of his eight career starts. However, he's run into trouble in three of his last four races and post one will not help his cause.

There have been mixed signals concerning Awesome Act of late. The wet track should be in his favor and the Derby is his third start off a four-month layoff. On the other hand, his trainer is not 100% confident the Gotham winner will move forward going 1 1/4-miles.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER

For those with a $100 bankroll, I suggest betting $52 to win on Sidney's Candy.

In addition, play a $1 superfecta bet with Sidney's Candy on top of Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Stately Victor, American Lion and Awesome Act, over the same five plus Ice Box for third, and all six for fourth.

For those who don't have the time to look at each horse's numbers, the bets are as follows: $52 to win on the 20, along with a $1 superfecta - 20/1, 4, 6, 7, 16/1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 16/, 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 16.

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Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds

Will he or won't he?  Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.

Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.

"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."

Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.

Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.

But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.

Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback.  It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.

Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1


Atlanta Falcons 50-1


Baltimore Ravens 15-1


Buffalo Bills 50-1


Carolina Panthers 18-1


Chicago Bears 10-1


Cincinnati Bengals 15-1


Cleveland Browns 100-1


Dallas Cowboys 15-1


Denver Broncos 15-1


Detroit Lions 100-1


Green Bay Packers 50-1


Houston Texans 100-1


Indianapolis Colts 6-1


Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1


Kansas City Chiefs 30-1


Miami Dolphins 40-1


Minnesota Vikings 75-1


New England Patriots 10-1


New Orleans Saints 18-1


New York Giants 20-1


New York Jets 30-1


Oakland Raiders 100-1


Philadelphia Eagles 18-1


Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1


Saint Louis Rams 60-1


San Diego Chargers 6-1


San Francisco 49ers 75-1


Seattle Seahawks 20-1


Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1


Tennessee Titans 40-1


Washington Redskins 50-1

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook credit cards needs.

College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.