Canadian MLB Report: Axford making most of chance

Baseball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Multiple Canadian-born hurlers were supposed to be impact pitchers for their respective teams in 2010, but the first half of the year didn't exactly reflect those predictions. On the other hand, some have stepped up and assumed new roles, exceeding expectations by putting together a strong first half.

All John Axford has done so far this year is stave off Trevor Hoffman, the all- time saves leader, for the closer's role in Milwaukee. The Brewers' new stopper has not allowed a run since the All-Star break, collecting three saves and lowering his ERA to 2.70 in the process. While the intention of the Brewers organization may not have been for Axford to assume the closer role on a full-time basis, he's making their decision easier than anticipated. Alford is sporting a 1.17 WHIP, a K/9 ratio of 11.40 and has yet to blow a save this entire season.

He may not be the prettiest at times, but Blake Hawksworth continues to start for the St. Louis Cardinals since taking over the fifth spot in the rotation for the injured Brad Penny. The sophomore threw out of the bullpen to start the year, a role he assumed last season as well, but has gone 3-1 with a no- decision in his last five outings. Hawksworth's 4-5 record, 4.85 ERA and 1.77 WHIP may not be overly impressive, but the 27-year-old is soaking up innings for a Cardinals team that is battling for the National League Central division with the Cincinnati Reds. The North Vancouver native has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts, and should continue to get the ball until if/or when the Cardinals supplant him in the rotation.

Ryan Dempster, who has turned into Canada's marquee starting pitcher in the big leagues, has boasted impressive stats while playing for one of the league's most underachieving teams. The Chicago Cubs right-hander continues to reinforce his reputation as a workhorse, and has pitched well this season for a staff that sits 10 games under .500.

Dempster's eight complete games are tops in the NL and his 130 strikeouts are good for eighth in the league. Dempster is coming off his worst outing in over a month, however, as the four earned runs he surrendered snapped a consecutive streak of eight straight games without allowing more than three earned runs. The 33-year-old is not showing meaningful signs of letdown though, boasting a deceiving 8-7 record, with a 3.70 ERA, while on his way to a third consecutive season of over 200 innings pitched, (133.2 to date).

With speculation that his rotation spot may be in jeopardy, Jeff Francis picked a good time to have a strong outing against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. The Colorado Rockies left-hander blanked the Nationals over seven innings, striking out seven in the process, while holding them to three hits, en route to his third victory of the season. Before this start, Francis had allowed 16 runs over his last 12 innings, a span which covered three games. Francis was the ace of the 2007 NL pennant-winning Rockies, but after shoulder surgery which cost him the entire 2009 season, he's now fighting just to get the ball every fifth day. With more performances like his most recent one, when he effectively used his changeup as an "out" pitch, Francis could be a key contributor down the stretch for a Rockies team fighting for a postseason berth.

INJURY UPDATE

Seattle Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard will now be facing an even longer road to recovery than what was previously expected. After throwing successful rehab assignments in June, Bedard subsequently felt discomfort in his surgically- repaired shoulder that will require him to be re-examined, further prolonging his return to the big leagues. The 31-year-old has been plagued with injuries throughout his career and has not thrown at the major league level since last July. Until further evaluation, the Canadian's immediate status is currently unknown.

Rich Harden, the Texas Rangers' biggest pitching acquisition of the offseason, is once again dealing with injuries. The talented right-hander is on the DL with a non-arm-related injury (glute) but is on his way to a fifth straight season of logging less than 150 innings.

Harden, who when healthy racks up strikeouts and at times can be dominant, could prove to be a formidable sidekick to Cliff Lee down the stretch run if he can stay off the shelf. A player of Harden's capabilities should be able to turn it around despite sporting a career worst 5.68 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. The oft-injured 28-year-old could return to the big league club as early as next week.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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