Valencia, Twins stay hot in rout of Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Valencia knocked in three and collected four more hits while Carl Pavano turned in his eighth consecutive winning decision in an 11-2 Twins victory over Kansas City.

Valencia was coming off a 4-for-4 performance in Monday's 19-1 shellacking of the Royals and is 8-for-9 in the series. Joe Mauer, who was 5-for-5 with a career-high seven RBI on Monday, drove in another two runs with two hits in the middle test to this three-game set.

J.J. Hardy hit a solo home run and added a run-scoring single amid a three-hit game and Michael Cuddyer added three hits and two RBI to the win, Minnesota's fourth straight and sixth in the last seven games.

The Twins have racked up 47 runs and 72 hits over their current four-game torrent and reached double-digit runs for the third straight game. Over the last seven games, Minnesota has outscored the competition 60-12.

Pavano (13-6), meanwhile, reached 98 pitches in five innings, but held the Royals to five hits and a run over that time to stretch an unbeaten streak to 10 starts dating back to June 9. The Twins have gone 9-1 in those games.

Bruce Chen (5-5) was knocked around for 11 hits and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to take the loss, Kansas City's fifth in six games. Scott Podsednik had two hits and drove in a run, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.

Minnesota paced itself in the early going with a mere four runs in the first three innings. Cuddyer chased home Mauer with a two-out single and Valencia did the same to score Delmon Young in the game's first frame.

Valencia and Hardy had back-to-back RBI singles with one out in the third for a 4-0 margin. Jose Guillen interrupted the visitors' scoring with a sacrifice fly in the fifth, but the Twins were right back at it in their next at-bat. Jason Repko singled in Drew Butera and Mauer added a sac fly in the sixth after Kyle Farnsworth took over for Chen.

Podsednik knocked in Alex Gordon with a two-out hit in the bottom half, but Hardy blasted a home run off Robinson Tejeda in the seventh to erase the run and make it 7-2.

Minnesota tacked on four more in the eighth as Mauer, Young, Cuddyer and Valencia strung together consecutive two-out RBI hits off Victor Marte.

Game Notes

The Twins had 19 hits Tuesday a night after tying their season high with 20. Young had two hits and scored three runs...Minnesota improved to 9-3 since the All-Star break...Pavano walked three and struck out two. He had pitched into the seventh inning in each of his previous 12 trips to the mound. The veteran right-hander has also won five straight decisions on the road, where he's compiled a 7-3 record in 11 starts thus far in 2010. It was Pavano's fourth overall matchup with the Royals this season, as he improved to 3-1 in 2010 and 7-5 in 13 lifetime games (12 starts) against them...The Twins have won eight of 10 versus the Royals this year, as well as 16 of the last 20 overall meetings between the teams. Minnesota is also 18-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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